The race to decide who will be the Lone Star State's next governor is set. Gov. Greg Abbott easily won his Republican primary on Tuesday. In November, the incumbent will face off against Democrat Gina Hinojosa, an Austin-area Texas House member.
A win for Abbott would put him on track to becoming the longest serving governor of Texas. For Hinojosa, a win would break the 30-plus year streak of Republicans holding the office.
However, defeating Abbott won't be easy. He has everything an incumbent gubernatorial candidate could dream of: More than $100 million in campaign cash on hand, strong name recognition, and the backing of the current president.
"She's up against probably one of the most formidable Republicans in the nation, the most well-financed Republicans in the nation — probably the most comfortable incumbent Republican in the nation," said Alvaro Corral, a political scientist at The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley. "I think the odds are very much stacked against her."
But it's a battle Hinojosa believes is necessary.
"Our fight right now is against the billionaires and the corporations who are driving up prices," Hinojosa said during her October campaign kickoff event in her hometown of Brownsville.
She thinks right now is the time to strike. Abbott's approval ratings have seen sporadic dips lately, but that alone may not be enough to unseat him.
Tuesday night, the governor mostly ignored his Democratic opponent, instead taking to social media to congratulate a slew of successful Republicans he'd backed in their primaries.
Governor @GregAbbott_Tx calling to congratulate Republican candidates who won up and down the ballot tonight!
— Texans for Abbott (@GovHotWheels_TX) March 4, 2026
Let’s Roll, Texas! #txlege #txgov pic.twitter.com/qHq1cufOZL
Rather than campaigning for himself, Abbott has spent most of his recent time and money attacking the Democratic candidates in the Senate race.
"He's in such a position — sort of above the fray — that he can sort of go on the attack against the Democratic Party in general to try and help Republicans down ballot," Corral said.
Sergio Garcia-Rios, a professor at University of Texas' LBJ School of Public Affairs, told The Texas Newsroom that's likely because the U.S. Senate race will play a big factor in whether Hinojosa stands a chance in November.
"Unless the Senate [election] really mobilizes a lot of voters — and especially young voters and low propensity voters — it is going to be harder for all other positions to win," said Garcia-Rios, who also serves as Univision's director of polling data.
Still, Hinojosa does have some advantages if voters are looking to try voting for someone other than current Republican leadership.
"It's already an advantage, but she has to campaign beyond identity," Garcia-Rios said. "Being from the Valley, being Latino is not enough. You still have to present solutions and you still have to campaign heavily."
Currently, none of Texas' major polls show Hinojosa with any chance to win. But the general election is also more than 240 days away.
The Texas Newsroom is a public radio journalism collaboration that includes NPR, KERA in North Texas, Houston Public Media, KUT in Austin, Texas Public Radio in San Antonio and other stations across the state.