Election Day is just over five weeks away, so Texans still have more than a month of political ads to look forward to before they choose who will succeed Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
Spending on advertising across all media is rapidly approaching the record total campaign spending on a Texas Senate race, which was previously set during the 2024 contest between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred. That election saw just over $210 million in total spending, according to AdImpact. The advertising intelligence firm projects that spending on the Paxton-Talarico contest will more than double the earlier record with $440 million in spending by Nov. 3.
Who's spending what
As of mid-September, AdImpact found collective spending on advertising by the two candidates' campaigns and the outside groups supporting them totaled more than $153 million.
For much of the summer, Talarico's campaign was in the lead in fundraising and ad spending, and the Democratic candidate largely had the airwaves to himself. But federal rules require lower advertising rates for political advertising within 60 days of an election. When that threshold was crossed in early September, more than a dozen super political action committees (super PACs) began a spending spree promoting Paxton and attacking Talarico.
Talarico's own campaign had spent just under $50 million in advertising for the general election by Sept. 17. Outside groups supporting Talarico spent another $3.7 million, virtually all of that coming from the liberal Lone Star Rising PAC.
By contrast, Paxton's campaign spent a meager $465,000 on advertising as of mid-September, while conservative super PACS spent $98.5 million. The lion's share, $62.4 million, came from Texas PAC — a group linked to the Senate Leadership Fund, which is in turn closely linked to the Republican Senate leadership. Another $11 million came from Make America Great Again (MAGA), Inc., President Donald Trump's super PAC.
All of which raises the question: will it make a difference?
"There’s always that question: is there a direct correlation to spend[ing] and election outcomes?" John Link, AdImpact's senior vice president of data, said. "[It's] very difficult to define, but I think historically, as we see these records being set each cycle, people do believe in the power of advertising."
Most polls show the contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico either in a statistical dead heator a slim lead for Talarico. Erika Franklin Fowler, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project at Wesleyan University, said that such a tight contest is precisely when advertising matters the most.
"Advertising really matters at the margin," Fowler said. "It’s not going to take a candidate who is not otherwise a good candidate and take them from somewhere of, like, 30% support over a victory line. It’s really in the fraction, up to a couple percentage points, that advertising can move or benefit a particular candidate."
How all that money is showing up on screens
If you feel like it's impossible to get away from commercials for the Texas Senate race, you're not imagining things.
"It’s unprecedented, quite honestly," said Jason Tinnel, professor of practice at the University of Houston's Valenti School of Communication. "I have never seen it to the point to where I thought it was a presidential campaign, because of how many ads you’re seeing for both candidates."
The spending on TV, radio, and social media advertising in the Texas Senate contest would likely be massive regardless of the dynamics of the race. Part of that is simple geography. Texas is huge, with 18 distinct media markets, and there are a lot of people to reach.
"To go up on broadcast specifically in all the different media markets of Texas is quite expensive, and so that’s part of what is also driving the increased spending in the state," Fowler said.
Add to that the fact that the race is arguably the most competitive Senate contest Texas has seen since the late 1980s, when Democratic Sen. Lloyd Bentsen won his last term while simultaneously running unsuccessfully for vice president. Both Republicans and Democrats are determined to do whatever they can to boost turnout — either by pumping up their bases or luring over undecided voters.
"We know that this is the Democrats' best chance in three decades," said Kirby Goidel, a professor in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University. "Talarico is better positioned to win in this race than Beto O'Rourke was [against Ted Cruz] in 2018, and so that’s going to be reflected in the campaign spending."
That alone would not explain the level of spending by super PACs from outside the state. But with Texas in play, control of the U.S. Senate may hang in the balance as well.
"We don’t know who’s going to control the Senate after this particular cycle, and a Democratic pickup in Texas would go a long way to helping them gain control of the Senate," Goidel said. "On the flip side of that, a Republican successful defense in Texas also would potentially help them maintain control."
How far is too far?
That partly explains why the tone of advertising has gone relentlessly negative.
Early on, Talarico tried to keep a positive tone, but now he's running ads stressing Paxton's reputation for alleged political corruption. One features Talarico himself at a campaign event lambasting Paxton for allegedly growing rich in government service, as well as recounting Paxton's 2023 impeachment on charges of abuse of office.
Another Talarico ad displays camera footage of Paxton taking an expensive Montblanc pen someone had left behind in a tray by a metal detector. The pen's owner declined to press charges against Paxton, but he endorsed Talarico in the ad.
"Vote for James Talarico," the announcer said at the ad's conclusion. "He won’t steal your pen."
The pro-Paxton ads are just as harsh, but they're also moving into uncharted territory. One features an AI-generated image of Talarico that weaves together public statements about his Christian faith, taken out of context, into a single message spoken to the camera.
"How can you look at that any differently than all the discussions about the ‘16 and the ‘20 elections about potential foreign government manipulation of elections?" said UH's Jason Tinnel. "To use that type of technology in that manner is gross misconduct."
Whether that's the case or not, voters are likely to see more such AI-generated attack ads in future cycles, according to Wesleyan University's Erica Franklin Fowler.
"At last track, we’ve identified at least $80 million that have been spent on AI advertising across the country," Fowler said. "Most of it is not disclosed — in other words, the ad does not contain any sort of disclaimer that would tell you that it uses AI. The federal government hasn’t regulated this, so it’s not required for federal-related advertising."
A law passed by the Texas Legislature in 2019makes "fabricating a deceptive video with intent to influence the outcome of an election" a criminal offense if it's done within 30 days of an election. The election is still more than 30 days away — but just barely.
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